CEO & Cofounder of Impossible Metals Inc.
As the world works toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, transitioning to a low-carbon economy requires massive amounts of critical metals for producing batteries and other clean energy technologies. Not surprisingly, the demand for metals such as nickel, cobalt, copper and manganese has skyrocketed. Projections are that this demand will increase by 400% by 2040 and 500% by 2050, and its sheer scale raises concerns about these metals’ availability and sustainability.
I and others in the critical metals industry have seen three potential solutions circulating as ways to resolve this shortage: reducing demand, substitutions, and additional sources. In this article, I will explore the first two potential solutions.
Reducing Demand: A Viable Solution?
One potential solution to address the growing demand for critical metals is to reduce their overall need. Proposals to reduce demand fall into two categories.
The first category is to reduce domestic demand by reducing car dependence in wealthy nations, which sounds doable in theory but can have significant implications for GDP and the economy. For example, in the U.S., that could require the migration of 50% to 75% of the population from rural and low-density communities to medium-density communities to take advantage of cycling, biking, walking and mass transit. This migration would impact hundreds of millions of Americans and require significant policy, urban, infrastructure and transportation changes that could take decades to implement and bring their own challenges.
The second proposed solution would limit access to modern technology like electric vehicles (EVs) and air conditioning (AC) in developing countries like India and in Africa. But an article from the World Bank states that in a study of 20 developing countries, EVs would be an economic and environmental win for more than half of those countries. And while climate change affects the entire planet, poorer countries are more severely affected. When Harvard China Project researchers modeled future air conditioning demand, they found an enormous gap between current AC capacity (2.8 billion people live in the hottest parts of the world, but only 8% of them have home AC) and the AC capacity needed by 2050 to save lives. While it is important to dig into how to reduce the overall demand for critical metals in order to attain net-zero goals, it’s clear that the solution needs to be more practical and humane.
While reducing demand won’t by itself solve the critical metals shortage, even incremental decreases in demand could aid the global transition to a low-carbon economy. Industry leaders can support a reduction in employee car dependence by locating facilities in medium- to high-density communities, then subsidizing mass transit or providing transit services, such as a bus, shuttle, or vanpool service, and supporting remote work one or more days a week. They can also work with local governments to support investment in public transportation, the creation of green public spaces and tree-lined streets to shade pedestrians and reduce urban temperatures by several degrees, and the implementation of sustainable building techniques such as cooling buildings by painting roofs reflective colors.
Substitutions: Exploring Alternatives
Another approach to reducing the demand for critical metals is to explore substitutions. For instance, replacing nickel and cobalt in NMC (nickel manganese cobalt) batteries with LFP (lithium, iron and phosphorus) in batteries is possible. However, this substitution comes at the cost of about a 30% reduction in battery range due to the increased weight. The substitution isn’t viable for long-range vehicles, truck EVs or electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.
LFP batteries can be a suitable option for low-cost EVs with limited range but still require massive amounts of mining for iron, phosphorus and lithium. All battery chemistries improve as time progresses, but the fundamental difference between iron- and nickel-based batteries will remain. New chemistries will come, but the automotive industry typically takes years to adopt them.
Additionally, nickel and cobalt are also used in various other technologies such as jet engines, gas turbines, orthopedic implants, diamond tools, automobile airbags, chemical processing, nuclear power, bricks, cement, coins, cell phones, boat propeller shafts, turbine blades, electric appliances and many other applications, making it challenging to eliminate the demand for these metals.
In the U.S., the Inflation Reduction Act—passed in late 2022—sets aside billions of dollars for EV and battery manufacturing, so we’ll continue to see improvements in battery performance and new technologies. When exploring battery alternatives, it’s important to consider battery weight, energy density, charging speed, recyclability and cost. Batteries for stationary electricity storage (used for renewable power sources like wind and solar) and for micromobility devices such as e-bikes, scooters, electric skateboards and electric pedal-assisted bicycles don’t need the battery performance required by EVs, so we’ll see some of the newer chemistries, like sodium-ion, solid state or iron-air chemistries, implemented there first.
Conclusion
Climate change is a global crisis threatening our planet and our way of life. The Paris Agreement, signed by 196 countries, is a landmark commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius. However, achieving this goal will require a massive transformation of our energy system, and batteries, and the metals that comprise them, will play a critical role.
While it’s important to brainstorm creative solutions to combat climate change, it’s critical to have all the facts and understand the consequences. We would be remiss not to take advantage of any and every tool and activity that can get us to the net-zero emissions goal by the 2050 deadline, including societal changes such as reducing demand and technological advances such as battery metal substitutions. Still, with the facts, it’s clear that those two solutions alone are not enough to get us across the finish line.
So where do we get these critical minerals that we need so badly? In Part 2 of this series, I’ll dive into additional sources, including space mining, recycling, land mining and deep sea mining.
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