“The Cybertruck generated significant buzz with its unique design and ambitious specifications,” says Cox’s Streaty. “However, sales have fallen short of expectations due to higher-than-promised prices, lower driving range and payload capacity, and production issues. The unconventional design hasn’t resonated with traditional truck buyers, and strong competition from Rivian and Ford has intensified the market.”
The Cybertruck, she adds, is a “niche product with a unique design and high price point, which may not resonate with mainstream consumers. Additionally, recalls and quality concerns can significantly undermine customer confidence and sales, posing a substantial challenge for the Cybertruck’s market success.”
When unveiled in 2019, Musk promised the production vehicle would launch within two years, starting with a $39,900 model. At the actual launch in 2023, the base model cost $21,000 more than that. The Foundation Series model—an early-doors special—cost an additional $20,000 despite offering no physical differences other than a look-at-me logo. Nonphysical perks included lifetime cellular connectivity and “free” access to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system.
Forbes spoke with experts who estimate that Tesla sank at least $2 billion into the development of the Cybertruck. A traditional car might need 200,000 units per year to cover the research and development costs, Olav Sorenson, professor of strategy and sociology at UCLA and faculty director of its Price Center for Entrepreneurship & Innovation, has estimated.
Sorenson calculates that the Cybertruck, with its stainless steel body panels and unconventional construction, might require as many as 300,000 sales per year.
At current levels of Cybertruck sales Tesla “probably loses money on every one,” claims Sorenson. “It’s an innovative vehicle, but whether such an unusual design would appeal to consumers has always been a gamble. The DeLorean, the original stainless steel car, sold only about 9,000 units. Even more mainstream cars with unusual designs, such as the PT Cruiser, have struggled to reach profitable sales levels.”
Sadly for Tesla, Musk’s wedge wagon went from a million or more reservations—which many thought would take some years to work through—to walk-up availability at dealerships within months.
This swifter-than-expected softening of demand might have been partly due to the Cybertruck’s now notorious quality-control issues. “When we launched reservations for the Valkyrie, we knew that this would be a highly desirable car due to its limited production and the personnel involved in the car’s development,” says former Aston Martin CEO Andy Palmer. “People could rely on Aston and knew [the new car] was something we’d deliver. For the Cybertruck, we’ve seen a string of delays and a moving of the goalposts, which conveys a lack of reliability, and if the OEM isn’t reliable, why should customers be?”
A reservationist from northern Maryland, who says he was sold early on Musk’s promise of an electric pickup, spoke to WIRED on condition of anonymity. “I was planning on buying a truck and wanted my next vehicle to be electric,” he says. “At the time, the Cybertruck was the only EV pickup that seemed like it would be available soon. I placed an order with $100 refundable for the mid-tier one, but then the Cybertruck took much longer than originally promised, so I canceled my reservation.” He didn’t regret this decision. “With the events of the last couple of years, and especially the last couple of months, I would never now consider buying a Tesla vehicle.”
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